Is the Stock Market Different?

Overall, we expect the stock market to go higher. There is a good reason for that – the stock market is positive close to 54% of the days. A natural questions is whether this holds for other markets as well. There is inflation after all.

Looks like the stock market is more or less unique in that regard. A little bit of R magic over the last 10 years of back-adjusted data from CSIData, and we get:

Market Observations % Positive Mean Return Median Return BPV
Australian Dollar 2678 51.66 0.0199 0.0432 100000
Soybean Oil 2678 48.04 -0.0135 -0.0340 600
British Pound 2678 49.31 -0.0043 -0.0052 62500
Corn 2678 48.26 0.0219 0.0000 50
Cocoa 2673 50.49 0.0200 0.0343 10
Canadian Dollar 2678 49.87 -0.0004 0.0000 100000
Crude Oil 2675 49.96 -0.0321 0.0000 1000
Cotton 2674 49.91 0.0474 0.0000 500
Euro 2678 50.28 -0.0061 0.0075 125000
US Dollar Index 2743 49.45 0.0038 0.0000 1000
E-mini S&P 400 2679 54.37 0.0411 0.1056 100
E-mini S&P 500 2679 54.48 0.0324 0.0794 50
Feeder Cattle 2678 51.21 0.0036 0.0294 500
5-Year US T-Note 2678 50.47 0.0143 0.0068 1000
Gold 2675 51.91 0.0290 0.0371 100
Copper 2675 50.49 0.0262 0.0246 250
Heating Oil 2675 49.18 -0.0173 -0.0368 42000
Japanese Yen 2678 48.97 -0.0089 -0.0078 125000
Coffee 2673 49.03 -0.0232 -0.0086 375
KC Wheat 2678 48.23 -0.0120 -0.0379 50
Lumber 2678 46.17 -0.0405 -0.0811 110
Live Cattle 2678 48.86 -0.0089 0.0000 400
Lean Hogs 2678 48.19 -0.0378 -0.0268 400
Natural Gas 2676 47.18 -0.0783 -0.0808 10000
Nikkei 2679 51.94 0.0283 0.0835 5
E-mini Nasdaq 2679 54.07 0.0490 0.1018 20
Oats 2678 48.86 0.0465 0.0000 50
Orange Juice 2674 50.39 0.0230 0.0336 150
Palladium 2675 52.09 0.0376 0.0803 100
Platinum 2675 51.72 0.0015 0.0618 50
RBOB Gasoline 2675 50.64 -0.5827 0.0403 42000
Rough Rice 2678 47.33 -0.0146 -0.0402 2000
Soybeans 2678 50.84 0.4949 0.0768 50
Sugar 2673 47.64 0.0121 -0.0446 1120
Swiss Franc 2678 49.08 0.0042 -0.0082 125000
Silver 2675 53.14 0.0316 0.1146 50
E-mini Russell 2000 2712 52.45 0.0436 0.0875 100
2-Year US T-Note 2678 44.42 0.0051 0.0000 2000
10-Year US T-Note 2678 51.59 0.0211 0.0212 1000
30-Year US T-Bond 2678 51.21 0.0209 0.0313 1000
Wheat 2678 47.63 -0.0230 -0.0449 50
E-mini Dow Jones 2679 54 0.0324 0.0714 5

A quick scan through the table shows that most assets are certainly less extreme than the stock market. In summary, most markets can be treated as a fair coin on a daily basis, but be aware of the biased coins!

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