My system finally signalled a switch to a short from the long position on the S&P 500 (on the SPY ETF more precisely) held since Oct 23rd. Despite of the long duration, the position finished virtually at 0.
That’s in theory, in practice, things didn’t go so well. At the Wednesday close, I decided to close my trading positions so that I don’t have to deal with the short trading day on Friday (markets closing at 1) and to avoid being exposed to the long time off. As a result, I missed the 1.35% rally today, and for me, the position resulted in a loss of about 2% accounting for leverage.
Most likely I will be establishing my short on Monday’s close. Psychologically that’s a pretty tough position to take, since December is usually bullish. As always, only the future will tell.
The indicators on the S&P 500 page seems to suggest that a short position is not a bad idea, but for Monday, not for Tuesday. While the monthly moving averages as well the 200-day moving average are suggesting long, everything else suggests a short. Probably worth looking into a short on the futures market, hmm, that got me thinking.:)